Bitcoin shed 14% in seven days, sliding to levels not seen since February, as a convergence of institutional outflows, leverage liquidations, geopolitical pressure, and a shock sale from Strategy rattled digital asset markets.
Yet Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, told clients the bear market may be in its final stages — and that the low is “almost in.”
“I think when we look back at the end of 2026 with BTC at $100k… we will say this was the buying zone we all wanted,” he wrote.
Bitcoin traded around $63,739 on Wednesday, down from a 24-hour high of $67,416.50, after touching a session low near $61,463 — the first time it breached that threshold since the February crash. The decline placed BTC roughly 51% below its all-time high of $126,277, set in October 2025.
The trigger that broke market confidence came from a Monday SEC filing. Strategy disclosed the sale of 32 Bitcoin between May 26 and May 31, generating approximately $2.5 million at an average price of $77,135 per coin.
The transaction represented the firm’s first net reduction of its Bitcoin holdings in years — a break from co-founder Michael Saylor’s well-known “never sell” posture . The sale was executed to fund dividend obligations on Strategy’s STRC preferred shares, which carry an annual variable dividend of 11.5%.
The market reaction was sharp. Bitcoin fell below $72,000 the same day as the SEC filing. Strategy’s own stock dropped near 6%, and STRC shares traded around $94 .
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are recording a 13 consecutive day streak of net outflows — the longest run since the products launched in early 2024. Total withdrawals reached approximately $3.45 billion across that stretch. The week ending May 29 alone saw $1.42 billion in net outflows, the third-largest weekly withdrawal on record.
For the full month of May, cumulative spot ETF outflows reached $2.30 billion, making it the worst month of 2026.
Kendrick’s three bitcoin pillars
Against this backdrop, Kendrick laid out three reasons he believes the market is near a floor.
First, Strategy’s behavior in 2022 offers a precedent. When the firm last sold Bitcoin in December of that year, it purchased more than it sold two days later. Kendrick said he expects the same pattern to repeat — with a potential buyback of up to 100 times the 32 BTC sold.
A confirmed purchase as early as next Monday would, in his view, serve as a tentative signal that the low is in.
Second, spot ETF holdings have held up better than feared. The cumulative net inflow since inception remains at $54.2 billion — right where it stood earlier in the year. Total BTC held by the 11 U.S.-listed funds sits at approximately 674,000 BTC, down from a peak near 682,000 but broadly unchanged in structural terms.
“This tells me that ETF holdings are more structurally strong than I had feared in February,” Kendrick said.
Third, the pool of leveraged longs available for liquidation is smaller than in prior drawdowns. Bitcoin futures bets worth $1.5 billion were liquidated by exchanges during the current sell-off, a figure in line with January’s.
With BTC already underperforming equities through 2026, forced selling risk has diminished.
Macro Headwinds Persist
Kendrick’s long-term targets remain $100,000 for Bitcoin by year-end.
