The bitcoin price is on the move again this morning, pumping sharply from the mid‑$65,000 range to push toward $70,000, representing roughly a 6% gain in just a few hours as leveraged short positions face heavy liquidations.
Last week, Bitcoin price briefly surged past $69,000 on February 25 before retreating over the weekend, falling back to around $65,000.
The move today comes after a volatile weekend marked by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, when joint U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets, including reports of attacks near Tehran and Iran’s leadership, and then Iran’s retaliatory actions rocked risk assets across global markets.
Bitcoin initially sold off sharply over the weekend, dipping as low as the low $63,000s as markets digested the news. But, within a couple of hours, the price rebounded back to levels it was at before the news.
Bitcoin price analysis
Macro conditions continue to influence Bitcoin’s trajectory. Elevated U.S. interest rates and persistent inflation signals have kept the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets high, limiting aggressive upside moves.
Meanwhile, geopolitical developments—including the conflict in Iran—have amplified short-term swings but have not fundamentally shifted Bitcoin’s broader trend.
Investor sentiment remains cautious, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hovering near extreme fear, reflecting hesitancy to push prices significantly higher amid ongoing uncertainty.
Bitcoin price is also on track for a historically weak first quarter, down more than 25% in 2026, marking its worst Q1 performance since 2014, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data.
Historical patterns suggest that bear markets in dollar terms can extend 12 to 13 months, potentially stretching through late 2026. However, when priced in gold, the market may be closer to a bottom, with some analysts pointing to a possible rebound beginning this month.
Large-scale investors are also increasingly treating the current environment as an accumulation zone, suggesting that long-term holders are positioning for future gains even as retail activity remains subdued.
The real price reckoning arrives today. Weekend crypto trading was notoriously thin, and price action during that period can mislead.
Bitcoin ETFs are the key variable this week. Spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $787 million in net inflows last week, and $1 billion over three consecutive sessions before the strikes hit. If that trend reverses, Bitcoin could punch through below $63,000.
On-chain data offers a mixed picture. Nansen research analyst Nicolai Søndergaard noted to Bitcoin Magazine that $41 million left exchanges over the past seven days — a bullish signal suggesting coins are moving to self-custody — and $61 million flowing into fresh wallets, indicating new participants entering the market.
But the top profit-and-loss wallets are distributing, with $2.5 million in outflows over the same period.
“Profitable traders are taking chips off the table while retail accumulates,” Søndergaard said.
Søndergaard key indicators to watch are sustained exchange outflows confirming an accumulation trend, whether smart-money outflows accelerate or stabilize, and the perpetual funding rate flipping positive — which would signal longs regaining control from what he described as “crowded short positioning.”
Bitfinex analysts told Bitcoin Magazine that traders are hedging near-term downside while building significant call positions between $80,000 and $90,000 for the March 27 expiry, leaving room for a sharp recovery if ETF inflows continue and macro conditions stabilize.
Still, funding swings, exchange reserves and uncertainty around the CLARITY Act leave bitcoin caught between a move back toward $80,000–$90,000 and a deeper drop to $47,000–$55,000 if geopolitical or liquidity shocks intensify, the analysts said.
Earlier today, Strategy ($MSTR) bought 3,015 bitcoin for roughly $204 million, raising its total holdings to 720,737 BTC, worth over $47 billion.
The purchases, made between Feb. 23 and March 1 at an average price of $67,700 per coin, were funded through at-the-market sales of common and preferred stock. With bitcoin trading near $65,500, the company now controls more than 3.4% of the total 21 million bitcoin supply, maintaining its status as the largest publicly traded corporate holder.
At the time of writing, the bitcoin price is $69,882.
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